Turning Events into Probabilities

Options and futures can help you assign probabilities to different events occurring in markets like interest rates. Experienced derivatives traders Mike and Frank show you how Fed Funds Futures (ZQ) are used to project what the Fed will do to interest rates by certain dates. Then, they talk about how probabilities are dynamics and how the highest-probability outcome does not necessarily always occur.

Follow Mike and Frank into the world of interest rates and see if you can spot some inefficiencies to trade using Small 2YR Yield Futures (S2Y).

0:05 Turning Events into Probabilities

2:45 Most Events Can be Made Into Markets

5:55 Futures Tell you Where Markets are Projected to Be

7:10 And these Probabilities Change

7:27 With Every Passing Week

8:05 The Trade is on the Journey

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