Why Economists Aren't Day Traders

Jul 14, 2022

By The Small Exchange

Overview

The recent rise in inflation (CPI) has translated to some relatively predictable long-term trends: higher rates, lower stocks, and stronger USD. While an economist might be able to tell you as much, Errol and Frank discuss how and why those same markets closed in the opposite direction on the day of the highest inflation reading in more than 40 years.

Economic data such as inflation and rate decisions can shift market dynamics, but they are difficult to equate with daily price action. Thus, Frank makes the case for day traders not acting like economists as predicting a market's reaction can be much harder than trading said reaction with stats and probabilities.

Contents

0:05 Why Economists Aren't Day Traders

1:20 Expected Inflation (CPI)

2:30 Actual Inflation (CPI)

2:40 What is the Impact of Inflation on Markets?

4:10 How do Stocks React to Inflation?

5:15 How do Currencies React to Inflation?

6:15 Trading the Reaction with Small US Dollar

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